Tuesday, 11 October 2022

Students returning to Australia

Travelling to Aus

August isn't a seasonally strong month for arrivals into Australia, but still there were 1,027,700 trips into the country over the month.

There were 942,210 departure trips, which taken at face value nets out to +85,490 trips inbound.

The equivalent net inbound figure in July was also +113,120. 

These are pretty strong numbers on a net basis, and are reflective of an Aussie population which is now growing quickly again. 

Students return 

There were a further 47,110 permanent and long-term arrivals in August, following on from a very strong 60,550 last month, which points to a solid rebound in permanent migration into Australia. 

Short-term arrivals for the month were 342,050, which is still way down from the long-term trend.

Mind you, the figure for last year was close to zero, so it's certainly an improvement in that context!

Source: ABS

Possibly the most significant trend from a macro perspective is the return of international students, with a further 40,650 arrivals in August, following on from more than 50,000 student arrivals for course commencement in a busy July.

Again the prior year figures were very close to zero.  

The wrap

International students don't necessarily figure prominently in housing demand, as they tend to live in student accommodation, or share housing, very often.

But still this is a very significant data series for the easing of labour force capacity constraints, with potential now new workers arriving in their tens (and soon hundreds) of thousands. 

The Reserve Bank will also have taken further heart from today's NAB Survey which showed business confidence a touch weaker, and labour and purchasing costs apparently having peaked for this cycle. 

Momentum in household spending also slowed in Q3, with inflation and soon higher interest rates weighing.