Thursday, 15 September 2022

Unemployment rate rises to 3.5pc

Employment slows

Employment, full-time employment, and monthly hours worked came in below where they were back in June. 


The unemployment rate increased to 3.5 per cent in August, while the underutilisation rate was flat over the month. 


Once again, there were still a massive 760,000 folks working reduced hours in August due to sickness, which is about double the number you'd typically expect to see at this time of year. 

Hopefully this unwelcome trend is now nearing its end. 

There were 71,000 international students arrivals in July, up from zero a year earlier, so it's clear that net arrivals will begin to alleviate labour market constraints from here, and in due course.  

The latest arrivals and departures figures showed clearly why there will be fewer problems ahead.


The Melbourne Institute also reported today that inflation expectations dropped by 5.9 per cent to 5.4 per cent last month.  

The wrap

The peak looks to be in for the strongest of the labour force data, and the economy will now slow markedly from here given the sharp monetary policy changes working their way through the system. 

Trading updates point to the road ahead, which is to say a sharp slowdown in spending and activity, reflecting low consumer confidence. 


Consensus may be that the RBA needs to pare back the pace of interest rate increases.