Job vacancies head down
Following on from what's already been reported by private date providers, job vacancies fell by -2.1 per cent or 10,000 from record levels to 470,000 over the 3 months to August 2022, according to the ABS figures.
Although there was an increase in the number of unemployed persons reported in August, the ratio of unemployed to job vacancies is still pretty close to 1:1.
The quarterly decline in job vacancies was led by Western Australia and Tasmania, with 4 of the 8 states and territories recording a drop over the 3-month period.
New South Wales and Victoria, on the other hand, saw record job vacancies, with NSW clocking in at over 150,000 vacant positions for the first time.
Importantly, the labour force has increased by 567,000 since September last year, and by well over 1 million from the pandemic lows, and with immigration now ramping up again the peak of the pressures should now begin to ease as housing construction drops away quickly.
The below graph appears to imply that the unemployment rate could yet tick below the cycle lows of 3.4 per cent seen in July, though the traditional relationship between job vacancies and the unemployment rate has been jiggered by the absence of temporary visa holders.
There were some 59,100 job vacancies in accommodation and food services in August, and a further 46,100 in retail trade.
So there was still a major shortage of staff in these lower-paid customer-facing industries, but the return of international students and backpackers will begin to steady the ship from here.
The ABS also released its first Monthly CPI indicator, which showed annual inflation slowing from 7 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August.
There was a big spike in the price of fruit and vegetables in August, noted in the ABS.
Fruit and vegetable prices were highly elevated in August after flooding earlier in the year, but prices have since fallen sharply as an abundance of supply has hit the market in September.
This confirms suspicions that the retail turnover increase in August was all about food prices - which have since reversed - and not at all about volumes.
Obviously if there was more flooding later in the year then price pressures would return, but not now.
Excluding volatile items - fruit, vegetables, and fuel - the annual rate of inflation was 6.2 per cent.
Wages growth in Australia is currently tracking at 2.6 per cent.
