Thursday, 2 June 2022

Consumer spending powers on, for now

Australian National Accounts

Australia's nominal GDP grew by a strong 3.7 per cent in the March quarter, and 10.2 per cent over the year. 


There's been plenty of distortion in the year-on-year figures, but in current prices terms GDP has continued to post its recent strong trajectory in the March quarter. 


Real GDP per capita increased by a more modest 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, to be 2.5 per cent higher over the year, and appears broadly to be back on the pre-pandemic trajectory. 


Overall, it was a solid result which will keep the pressure on policy stimulus to be withdrawn.

A couple of headwinds present themselves, in particular the rising of cost of living, which is set to be compounded by increases in interest rates. 

Real net national disposable income - often taken to be a proxy for progress on the enhancement in living standards - has not been so strong. 


Moreover, Australia's recovery has benefited from enormously high commodity prices, which will go into reverse and fall back down to earth at some point. 


But for now, at least, consumer spending continues to power the recovery. 

The household saving ratio declined to 11 per cent, well down from above 20 per cent at the peak of the pandemic panic, and not too far from the pre-pandemic level of a shade under 10 per cent. 


Treasurer Jim Chalmers underscored that there are headwinds facing the economy, including rising power, energy, and fuel prices. 

Caveat emptor

Separately, multiple news outlets have reported that half of Australia's building companies are trading insolvent (Source: Association of Professional Builders), with the cost of building a home rising by more than $75,000 over the past year.  

Consumers should obviously take care when committing to the purchase of a new home in such an environment, and those undertaking a potential renovation or development also need to be wary of potential cost blowouts and overruns.