Wednesday, 23 February 2022

Wages growth...another fizzer

Wages disappointing...again

Quarterly wages growth was once again surprisingly soft in the December quarter at just 0.65 per cent. 

The headline wage price index again missed expectations, rising just 2.3 per cent over the year. 

Wages growth is back up to the weak levels seen pre-COVID. 


Private sector wages growth was awfully weak for the year at just 2.38 per cent.

And public sector wages growth was even softer, at only 2.09 per cent. 


After headline inflation, of course, real wages growth was deeply negative. 

At the state level, only Tasmania showed a decent result, with 3 per cent wages growth over the year, while Queensland recorded a tidy +0.8 per cent for the December quarter. 

Wages growth of just 2.0 per cent in Western Australia suggests that Australia may not be near full unemployment, given an unemployment rate in that state of just 3.7 per cent. 


The wrap

There were some wages pressures in the retail trade sector, and in accommodation and food, but since the borders are open now to temporary visa holders the supply of labour into these sectors will likely now ramp up again. 

Some folks tried to portray 0.65 per cent as strong result - presumably to back up their previous calls for imminent interest rate hikes - but overall, the figures showed a small improvement and modestly broader-based signs of wages growth. 

Lagging, maybe, but far from strong at this stage. 

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As always, the king of analysis James Foster elucidates further here

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Construction figures saw a wide miss on the expected 2.5 per cent growth for Q4, recording a negative result, while Q3 was also revised back into negative territory.

Probuild is reportedly heading into administration, which will leave thousands of apartments incomplete. 

Construction insolvencies have been artificially low for a couple of years, but two years of disruptions and delays - combined with rising materials costs (and now borrowing costs) - is sending more building and construction firms under.


I noticed earlier that The Ribbon is still unfinished, with no activity in evidence.


Cursed project, it seems - it was taken over from Grocon...who also went bust.