Tuesday, 30 November 2021

Housing credit impulse cools

Housing calming down

Decent news for the Aussie economy, with credit growth bouncing back up to 5.7 per cent. 

Business credit growth recorded another solid month to be up 5.3 per cent over the year. 


Housing credit growth picked up a bit further to 6.7 per cent, the highest level since July 2017. 


Although owner-occupier credit growth was very strong at 9 per cent - the highest since 2016 - investor credit growth was still quite muted at only 2.6 per cent over the year to October.


Although housing credit growth is still rising, it's no longer accelerating in the same manner, so we should expect the rapid housing price growth to taper over the coming months. 


With mortgage rates creeping higher, activity in the housing market is likely to be less dramatic next year. 

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Australia's seasonally adjusted current account surplus printed at a record high $24 billion in Q3, driven by rollicking iron ore and coal exports to China, while other global trade has been severely hampered. 

The cumulative surplus for the calendar year is set to be mind-bogglingly high, the like of which we've not seen before. 


The national accounts partials suggest that the economy probably shrunk by a few per cent in Q3, but we can expect the rebound to be strong over the year ahead given the accumulated war chest of household savings.