Tuesday, 7 September 2021

500,000+ jobs to go (CBA)

Jobs ads slide

ANZ saw job advertisements falling again in August, albeit not precipitously.


Source: ANZ

Accordingly ANZ expects to see the unemployment rate rising to back above 5 per cent in due course.


CBA's Head of Aussie Economics, Gareth Aird, noted in the Financial Review today that too many observers are overlooking the economic pain likely to be caused by extended lockdowns. 

Melbourne has now been in lockdown for a cumulative 234 days across six lockdowns, overtaking Buenos Aires as the most locked down city in the world...with more to come. 

Aird expects total employment for Australia to fall by more than half a million jobs, with an ensuing debt and deficit disaster for the government to face down. 

The rebound for Australia's economy could be strong enough when it does come, but it's a fair point that Aird makes.

We haven't see anything like these hugely extended lockdowns before, and the impacts could be far-reaching.