Friday, 2 July 2021

Job vacancies go ballistic

Vacancies leave stratosphere

Job vacancies soared to 362,500 in May, by far the biggest result on record. 


New South Wales alone accounted for 112,800 positions, but actually almost everywhere saw gains pushing 200 per cent over the past year, and higher still in some cases. 


The number of unemployed persons per job vacancy is now by far the lowest on record at 1.9.

The market is tighter than it sounds, since there will always be some 'frictional unemployment', while some unemployed will also always be unable to unwilling to work.


Due to ongoing border closures the labour force has increased by fewer than 100,000 since the beginning of 2020, so the vacancies equate to 2.6 per cent of the size of the labour force, which is also unprecedented. 


We probably shouldn't rely too much on past correlations given the unique circumstances, but this suggests that the unemployment rate will plummet towards 4 per cent and wages will rise as employers struggle to find appropriately staff. 

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