Saturday, 3 July 2021

Housing finance rises in May (but peaky)

Housing finance beats again

Housing finance exceeded expectations in rising 4.9 per cent in May, to be up by more than 95 per cent from a year earlier.


Homebuyer borrowing was very powerful in Sydney and New South Wales, but looks to have broadly topped out elsewhere, partly due to construction loans now being likely to decline across the second half of the year as stimulus is wound back.


Investor loan commitments were especially strong in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, taking investment lending 13 per cent higher over the month to above $9 billion (still well below where this figure should get to through this cycle). 

First homebuyer remained elevated in May, especially in New South Wales and resurgent Victoria, though there were some signs of softer figures elsewhere in the country.  


The average loan size for the purchase of established homes increased to $582k, to be $68k or 13 per cent higher than a year earlier. 


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In other news, commodity prices were up 49 per cent over the year, driven by iron ore prices.


Using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the index would be up 61 per cent over the year.

Good times for resources, and the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for some solid growth in household incomes next year.