Wednesday, 26 May 2021

Rental undersupply in 2022

Unit construction still slowing

It's been a strange year for rental properties.

It always seemed likely that the massive clampdown on property investors (and non-resident buyers) from around 2017 onwards would lead to an undersupply of rentals eventually, but it hasn't worked out exactly as one might've expected. 

There's been a significant shift in demand away from the CBDs, while the absence of international students has left an obvious hole in the inner-city student rentals markets.

Regional rents are soaring, though, especially in Queensland and all the way up and down the New South Wales and Victorian coastlines. 

There are also rentals shortages in inland cities such as Orange, and some of the capital cities too.

Detached house building has rebounded very strongly, due to the HomeBuilder stimulus.

But without non-resident investors to finance apartment projects attached dwelling construction continues to flail, hitting six-year lows in the March quarter.


Queensland is heading for a chronic rental shortage in parts, although at least construction activity in the market seems to be bottoming out here. 

This trend could be exacerbated by yet another COVID outbreak in Victoria, a trend which has seen a strong change in interstate migration over the past 15 months, towards south-east Queensland.

In Melbourne and Sydney, unit construction continues to slow, and due to the long 2-3 year lag effects related to apartment developments the undersupply will be felt once international borders are reopened. 


It's a mixed picture, though, around the traps. 

Detailed report as always from econoking James Foster can be found here

Overall construction work held up at about $52 billion for the quarter, which was solid enough, so the stimulus packages have had the desired effect. 

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It was the fastest day to date for Australia's vaccine rollout at about 105,000, with the weekly pace increasing to a fresh high of 516,000 doses. 


There will be a more intense focus on the pace of the rollout now as Victoria's virus outbreak spreads. 

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UK house prices rose 4 per cent over the year to April, with strong performance in Liverpool, Manchester, and Leeds (up from 2.3 per cent growth a year earlier), according to Hometrack's latest monthly update.