Wednesday, 5 May 2021

Dwelling approvals near record

Perth house surge

Further evidence that the housing boom will slow in H2 2021, as dwelling approvals increased 17 per cent (following February's 20 per cent increase) to 23,176, on a par with the record high.


Detached house approvals actually were at a record high of more than 14,000 in March, driven by a super-surge in Perth, Melbourne, and indeed most other locations. 

It's a good example of the sharp impact of government incentives, and since houses can be built relatively quickly, the economy will benefit immediately. 


Unit approvals have now settled at well below previous highs, with developers anticipating the rising demand in Queensland. 


Overall, these are very strong supply response numbers, which will likely dampen price growth in the housing market in the second half of the year. 

ANZ reported that interest-only loans on its Australian home loan portfolio continued to shrink to just 10 per cent of the book in 1H21, down from 18 per cent a year ago.

There's also a great deal more IO loan expiry to come over the next 18 months, so there's little to fear from a household debt binge perspective - there's never been so many people paying down their mortgage debt.

Delinquencies are proving dramatically in Western Australia, which is great to see.