Monday, 10 May 2021

Biz conditions, confidence at record levels

Boomtime conditions

The NAB Survey printed extremely strong results for business confidence (26) and business conditions (32!).

The survey has never seen such strong results in its 24-year history, while job vacancies have also scorched to 13-year highs. 

This will translate in to strong employment growth and economic growth for Australia, which is excellent news. 

The figures for capacity utilisation and employment conditions point to a much lower unemployment rate ahead, probably well under 5 per cent. 


Monthly retail turnover is also incredibly strong, running at nearly $31 billion in March (for context in January 2020 retail turnover was about $27½ billion), although permabear commentators still tried to portray this in a negative light. 

Iron ore is Australia's most important commodity, and as trade tensions with China has escalated the price has gone absolutely bananas. 


Previous Federal Budgets have assumed an iron ore price of $55 per tonne FOB...so $230 is absolutely out of this world. 


And it's not just iron ore. 

The copper spot has exploded to above $4.50/lb, helping Olympic Dam output ramp up to 5-year highs. 


It's all good stuff here, with the stimulatory settings getting exactly the desired result. 

Let's see what the Budget brings, but it seems the onset of the virus has shaken policy into a much more ambitious place.