National accounts (chart deck)
Australia's national accounts were released for the December 2020 quarter, so let's spin through half a dozen charts in customary fashion.
Real GDP growth bounced strongly to rise by 3.1 per cent in the final quarter of the year, largely driven by Victoria reopening, but still contracted by -1.1 per cent over the year.
I'm not sure how one comes up with an estimate for population growth at the moment, but the per capita figures followed a similar trend.
An interesting question, though, is whether we're at the beginning of a global commodities supercycle?
Some people think so, and the Reserve Bank's index of commodity prices absolutely exploded in the month of February to be 24 per cent higher year-on-year in SDR terms (admittedly only half that in Aussie dollar terms, which is another story).
This hadn't flowed through by December, of course, but even then the terms of trade index was up by 4.7 per cent in 2020 to the highest level since the tail end of the resources boom year in 2012.
As such Australia's annual nominal GDP growth actually sneaked back into positive territory by the end of 2020.
Indeed, nominal GDP was already back at record highs by Xmas, with evidently plenty more to come in the March quarter.
Looking at the other national aggregates, while real GDP was down over the year gross national income increased by more than 2 per cent in 2020, and so too did real net national disposable income.
The household saving ratio declined to a still-high 12 per cent by the end of the year, while interest serviceability has fallen to the easiest level in decades.
With household cashflows freed up, and the way commodity prices have been going, Australia could be in for a great 2021.
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Detailed analysis from James Foster can be found here.
