Saturday, 6 March 2021

NFPs send tech spiralling

Unemployment DOWN to 6.2 per cent

A decent employment report was delivered by the BLS, with nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. up +379,000 in February, while a substantial upwards revision to January helping to add a further +38,000 over the preceding two month. 

The result comfortably beat consensus expectations of a +200,000 gain.

The 3-month average gain is still only modest, at +80,000, but is at least turning positive again after December's nasty blip.


12¾ million (or 58 per cent) of the 22.2 million jobs lost have been recovered to date.


The participation rate was steady at 61.4 per cent, and remains 1.9 percentage points than a year earlier, and so the unemployment has continued to trend lower, now at 6.2 per cent (from 6.3 per cent previously). 


Commerce department figures showed that total U.S. wages and salaries paid had recovered to pre-pandemic levels in February at $9.7 trillion - despite lower employment - partly because the recession impacted lower income earners so disproportionately. 

Perversely the hot tech sector is not enjoying the brightening economic outlook, perhaps fearing less stimulus, and the NASDAQ index looks set to close lower again.

Tesla has retraced by 40 per cent from a recent record high touching $900 to an intraday low of $540, before bouncing a little, while innovation ETF ARKK has fallen from $160 to $106 since mid-February. 

Value has been catching a bid, with the energy ETF (NYSE: XLE) up from $28 in October to $53, as Buffett and others saw value in the sector. 

Overall, there appears to be growing optimism in the U.S. of a return to normality as the vaccines continue to be rolled out widely to the over 65s cohort.