Tuesday, 5 January 2021

Job ads exceed pre-pandemic levels

Job ads soar

ANZ's job advertisements series increased by another 9.2 per cent in December to the highest level in 18 months.


Job ads are now higher than they were before the pandemic began, as Melbourne reopens, and are 5 per cent higher year-on-year. 

This figures suggest that if no further lockdown measures are enforced unemployment will fall quickly towards 5 per cent. 

In other news, from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the household debt to disposable income ratio continued to decline in Q3 2020 from 1.87x at the peak to 1.79x.


This also doesn't reflect the huge surge in the household saving ratio in 2020, taking mortgage serviceability to the most comfortable level in 20 years.

Finally, the index of commodity prices for Australia increased 12 per cent in 2020, driven by iron ore prices.


A trifecta of good news for Australia, while the UK heads into a 7-week lockdown and sets on course for a double dip recession. 

Money markets are now pricing for negative rates in the UK due to the renewed lockdown, implying negative rates from May 2021.