Saturday, 5 December 2020

US unemployment rate falls to 6.7pc, but...

US recovery stalls in November

The US nonfarm payrolls report disappointed with an increase of only +245,000 in November, well behind expectations for +469,000.


Nonfarm payrolls dropped 22.1 million through March and April, of which 12.3 million or 56 per cent have now been recovered. 


The unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 per cent, now 8 percentage points lower than the recent April high. 


However, the Federal Reserve understandably sees the 'true' unemployment rate as being closer to the 10 per cent highs seen during the financial crisis. 

The underemployment rate improved only marginally by 0.1ppt to 12.1 per cent. 

The Fed's Evans said interest rates weren't expected to be raised until 2023, and probably 2024.

The US 30-year mortgage rate fell to the lowest level in history at 2.71 per cent, and mortgage serviceability is now - by far - the most comfortable on record.