Wednesday, 25 November 2020

Oil up 33%; stocks ballooning

Oil recovery

The oil price is back to its highest level since March, rising another 4 per cent to $47.91/barrel (Brent crude) today amid lower inventories and further vaccine optimism. 

Energy, arguably the main sector of the US economy demonstrating some semblance of 'value', has been quietly powering higher over the past month. 


US stocks more generally have been absolutely pumped, with price to sales ratios now ascending to even higher levels than the tech bubble peak of 2000. 

That's right, the price to sales ratio (ex-financials) is now at the highest level in stock market history at above 2.7x. 


The Dow Jones index took out a record 30,000 today, to some acclaim and modest fanfare.

Meanwhile, some of the wilder tech stocks out there could drop by two-thirds without troubling too many of the traditional metrics of valuation. 

Yet the US economy will need to face down some serious challenges as there is a changeover of President, with the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases now surpassing 175,000 and, for now at least, still trending higher. 

What. A. Year!