Monday, 30 November 2020

Credit growth in the doldrums

Money printer goes #Brr

Another fairly desperate month for credit growth, with zero increase recorded in the month of October. 

Business credit growth was negative (again), and so was personal credit growth (again).

Overall, annual credit growth in the Australian economy slowed to +1.8 per cent, a new 10-year low.

Broad money growth continued to rise to decade highs at +12.1 per cent over the year, as policy kicks into gear. 


The RBA has previously reported how additional savings and superannuation withdrawals have been used to bolster mortgage offset accounts and/or to pay down home loan principal directly.

New housing lending has been strong though, and despite the surge in repayments housing credit growth increased steadily to a 15-month high in October.


There's been a bit of poppycock talked about whether macroprudential policy should look to slow credit growth (from 1.8 per cent...lol), but the housing rebound is being driven by homebuyers not investors, and should ideally be allowed to run for as long as possible. 

The household debt to income ratio is now down to about 1.8x, and moreover mortgage offset accounts are awash with new balances, so there's no point driving around with one foot on the accelerator and the other on the brake when mortgage serviceability is at its most comfortable level in nearly 20 years.

Feeding the housing credit growth numbers into a credit impulse indicator suggests that the orderly housing price downturn ended about six weeks ago. 


Indeed housing prices increased +0.2 per cent in October and +0.6 per cent in November, to be higher than a year ago.