Monday, 26 October 2020

Melbourne reopening on hold for a bit longer (analysis paralysis)

Further delays for Melbourne

Good news for most of Australia this weekend, with zero domestic virus cases reported again yesterday, zero cases in ICUs nationally, and zero ventilator cases.

That's a marked contrast from Europe, where winter has seen case numbers (if not hospital admissions) explode.

A broad range of countries saw record high case numbers this week. 

France recorded 52,010 cases on Sunday alone, coming off the back of 45,422 cases on Saturday, as the virus goes endemic. 

Thankfully excess deaths have generally been low this time around, unlike in March or April.

In Australia, the state of Victoria saw 7 cases reported for the 24-hour period, and the state government was due to report an easing of the dramatic lockdown restrictions on Sunday.

The 14-day rolling average for case numbers have fallen to remarkably low levels following an extraordinary 16 weeks of lockdown.



However, no further easing was announced on Sunday, leading angry critics have accused the state government of 'analysis paralysis'.

Jobs losses across the state have averaged 36,500 per month since March.

While most states saw things begin to rebound in May, Victoria has endured four months of lockdown and total jobs losses had reached 220,000 by September.


With another month of lockdown now endured total job losses may have exceeded a quarter of a million.

Edit: perhaps the widespread backlash had some effect, with some easing measures to take effect from Wednesday, it was announced today. 

Some restrictions will remain in place for now, including visits to regional Victoria, but the worst now appears to be over. 

Auctions strengthen

There were 1,456 auctions held this week according to CoreLogic's figures, the highest volume since April, and the preliminary clearance rate in Sydney rose to above 80 per cent from 551 results. 

In Sydney the Eastern Suburbs, Ryde, and Northern Beaches all posted exceptionally high clearance rates on CoreLogic's numbers.  

Other cities such as Adelaide and Canberra reported strong results, perhaps even gaining some demand from capital flight away from Victoria. 


Source: CoreLogic

In saying that, Melbourne itself posted solid preliminary figures this weekend...even on Grand Final weekend, as homebuyers become desperate to get moving again. 

Further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank in November is now all but locked in, which should cement the property market rebound. 

See here for more from data wizard James Foster