Monday, 19 October 2020

Biden remains strong favourite in polls

Coup de grâce?

Opinion polls have been unequivocal in implying that President Trump is dead and buried, and media reporting has generally followed in sympathy along similar lines.

Betting markets also have Biden has hot favourite.

The end could finally be night for the 45th President. 

One thing that's worth keeping a watchful eye on for investors and traders, though, is the recent trend for betting odds, which has seen a sharp swing away from Biden over the past few days.

Biden has drifted from $1.48 to $1.64 on Betfair exchanges since October 15.

Put another way, an 8 per cent increase in matched bets has seen Biden's winning odds slump by a third over just the past four days. 


To be clear, all bookies continue to see Biden as strong favourite to win.

And this move is also completely at odds with virtually all mainstream polling, which sees Trump as five or six points behind Biden. 

Timestamp

The only takeaway here is that the end result could prove to be much closer than expected, given that the election date is still 15 days and 11 hours away at the time of blogging. 


Two horse races can always throw up surprises, so brace for some volatility in financial markets over the next fortnight.