Friday, 18 September 2020

Unemployment stuns forecasters at 6.8pc

Stunning result

Surveyed economists had expected a huge drop in employment in August given that the Victorian economy was almost entirely shut down. 


And the median market forecast was for the unemployment rate nationally to rise to 7.7 per cent. 


Instead, there was a stunning result with unemployment dropping to just 6.8 per cent.


And employment leapt by 1 per cent or +111,000, split between full time (+36,200) and part time (74,800) roles. 

At 12,583,000 total employment remains well below the 13 million employed seen in February, but it is reigniting surprisingly well, with more than half of the total employment lost now recovered.  


The rebound was driven by a further +52,000 jobs added back in New South Wales, a state which was seen employment surge back by +188,000 across the past three months. 

Still, there's another 100,000 or so jobs to go for NSW to get back to where things were. 


The unemployment rate in Victoria increased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1 per cent, with further increases likely in September and October, and possibly beyond.

Naturally the longer the shutdown persists, the more this will stymie the following recovery.  

Total hours worked, an extrapolated figure, remained 5 per cent lower year-on-year in August. 

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More details from data king James Foster here.

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Newly confirmed cases fell to just 28 in Victoria today, the lowest since the third week of June, as progress in  continues. 

Elsewhere results have been spectacularly good.

Australia is well positioned as it heads towards its warmer summer months, while in a few months Europe will be heading into the depths of its cold winter.