Friday, 3 July 2020

American recovery begins. However...

Unemployment falling again

The official US unemployment rate had been reported at 14.7 per cent in April.

In more promising news the BLS reported that the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 per cent in June. 


Having previously shed a horrendous -22 million jobs the economy added +4.8 million in June, following on from the upwardly revised +2.7 million added in May. 


The participation rate bounced by +0.7 per cent to 61.5 per cent, but remains -1.9 per cent below the February level. 

The next long recovery has begun.

However, jobless claims remain very high, while new virus cases have leapt to above an alarming 50,000 per day.

With the Coronavirus now having spiraled totally out of control the US potentially faces rolling shutdowns which will likely stymie the recovery.

The huge monthly bounces in payrolls of May and June are not expected to be repeated in the second half of 2020, in a line with the concept of a 'square root' shaped economic recovery. 

The US election campaign looms.