Thursday, 23 January 2020

Unemployment ticks down to 5.1pc

Unemployment lowest in 10 months

Another headline beat for the Aussie labour force in December, with a +28,900 increase in employment to 12.982 million. 

It's worth noting that the October result was revised down to -23,900, so the 3-month average gain was pretty weak at under 15,000 per month.

Over the year employment increased by a solid +263,000 or +2.1 per cent. 


The composition was weak - all part-time jobs this month - reflected in monthly hours worked increasing just +1.7 per cent over the year. 


Participation is off the record highs as female participation in New South Wales looks set to ease, and the unemployment rate dipped to 5.07 per cent to close out the year, for the lowest figure since February.


Pleasing result on this metric, and offering some hope that the stimulus delivered to date will be enough to hold the line until residential approvals begin to rebound in earnest.

State versus state

The jobs added in 2019 were accounted for by New South Wales (36 per cent), Victoria (34 per cent), Queensland (15 per cent), and Western Australia (7 per cent), but you can pick out your own favourites below. 


The trend unemployment rate in New South Wales ticked down to 4.6 per cent, with Victoria being the only other state to have a trend unemployment rate under 5 per cent. 


The wrap

Overall, a better result than was expected both for total employment and the unemployment rate, that will see futures traders quietly closing out their bets on a February rate cut.

Markets still see further easing in 2020 due to the weak composition of growth, while SEEK's job advertisements series also plunged, suggesting weakness still lies ahead. 

The bushfires are also expected to impact the early 2020 figures adversely.