Sunday, 26 January 2020

Buckle up

Lunar NY cancelled?

Lunar New Year to be cancelled? Or perhaps it will be extended.

When it comes to epidemics and potential epidemics - think SARS, Ebola - it usually pays to go to reliable sources of information.

Be wary of deliberately exaggerated reporting, but also alert to the risk of a pandemic. 

China itself has declared 2,000 cases of the coronavirus, and is reportedly building a new 1,000-bed hospital due for completion in - *check notes* - one week.

China data is usually treated with a healthy dose of scepticism, of course.

By the way, there are now 810 million urban Chinese, and, these days, they travel more.

The locking down of cities and transport options, the use of military forces, and the banning of some travel suggests that the virus is considered to be a very serious threat.

And then there's this, via the ABC:


Over the January/February period last year Australia had - *checks notes* - 349,100 short-term visitors from China. 

Including Taiwan and Hong Kong the total was 433,700.

These figures are in addition to the usual thousands of permanent migrants.

This is bearish for: crude oil, Aussie iron ore and coal exports, Chinese consumption, global and Aussie stocks, and risk sentiment more generally. 

Assume the brace position, there may be turbulence ahead!