Saturday, 2 November 2019

US payrolls smoke estimates

Jobs jobs jobs!

There was nothing surer.

As soon as the Armageddon crowd declared the US must surely be in an end-of-days recession then payrolls delivered an enormous beat - there was just that sense of inevitability about it. 

The market expected only +75,000 jobs due to the GM strike, but we got +128,000.

And then there were the revisions!

August was revised up by +51,000 to +219,000.

And September was revised up by +44,000 to +180,000.

Which puts the 3-month average payrolls gain at a rollicking +176,000.

And that's after what has been by far the longest expansion on record at 109 months. 


Participation ticked up a notch, as did the unemployment rate to 3.56 per cent (or 3.6 per cent rounded).

That's still nearly the lowest level in 50 years, despite the rounding up. 


Average hourly earnings grew by 3 per cent over the year, outpacing inflation for the 83rd month on the bounce. 


As the chart implies, perhaps earnings growth has lost momentum.

And there was a lot of part-time employment.

But then again the employment to population ratio is at the highest level since 2008.

The Fed cut rates yesterday, and markets are on another run, with stocks at record highs.


Overall, this was a strong result given that there was a -42,000 decline for motor vehicles and parts employment due to the strike. 

Keeps on keeping on...