Housing finance up 15pc since the election

Housing rebound continues

Housing finance increased steadily by another 1.3 per cent in September. 

This month the increase was driven by homebuyers, while investor lending dropped back.

In fact, housing finance has now increased by 15 per cent since the election, and to date the rebound has been driven more so than homebuyers than investors.

Owner-occupier lending hit a 14-month high in September at $14.2 billion.

First homebuyer commitments were steady ahead of the deposit scheme which kicks in on 1 January (and will see first homebuyer activity hit the highest level since the Rudd stimulus). 

The recovery started with Sydney and Melbourne, but now there is evidence of growing homebuyer confidence in Brisbane and Perth too.

The quarterly increase has been by New South Wales (8 per cent), Queensland (8 per cent), and Victoria (6 per cent). 

Total lending is now actually higher year-on-year. 

As data king James Foster pointed out, that's some turnaround - only four months ago the year-on-year decline was -22 per cent. 

The figures show just how much pent-up homebuyer demand was sitting on the sidelines due to the ALP's proposed tax policies. 

And there's plenty more to come as discussed here in dicing up Australia's population pyramid. 

The Reserve Bank noted in its SOMP that housing prices are now rising faster than expected.

Compounding the challenge, the REA Group reported for Q1 FY2020 an enormous decline in listings of more than 20 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne as quality stock is absorbed at a faster pace.

The SOMP didn't inspire much confidence in the Reserve Bank returning the economy to stronger growth and full employment, however, with a conga line of economists calling for further rate cuts and QE in 2020.