Recovery is solid
All manner of contortions from commentators trying to argue that the housing market hasn't bounced, despite the price indexes showing increases, which have gathered some speed since the election.
In reality, mortgage sizes are increasing, lending volumes are increasing, mortgage rates are falling, and stock levels are tightening.
Some of the popular narratives over the past year have included record mortgage stress, a mad rush for the exits, and a swathe of forced sales due to the interest-only cliff.
Some of the popular narratives over the past year have included record mortgage stress, a mad rush for the exits, and a swathe of forced sales due to the interest-only cliff.
There isn't much evidence of any of this in aggregate, though: Sydney listings, for example, are now down 21 per cent from a year earlier:
Source: Corelogic
Auction volumes this weekend were actually higher this year than a year earlier, for the first time (albeit much lower than in 2017), and clearance rates remained solid.
There's also a lot of cash on the sidelines, which presumably will find its way into equities or real estate in 2020.
Granted, it's up to you whether you believe all the bluster, but on the ground market conditions have moved on, and there's plenty more competition now in popular locations.
One thing I do agree with is the two-speed nature of the recovery, with the new apartment sector facing a world of bother and uncertainty, at least until there are stock shortages again in 2021.
