Tuesday, 1 October 2019

Approvals lowest since January 2013

Construction crunch

Attached dwelling approvals were much softer year-on-year in Sydney (1,461), Melbourne (1,328), and Brisbane (343!), as the ongoing collapse in approvals maintained the rage through August. 


It's not just an apartment phenomenon, though.

House approvals were also down 17 per cent from a year earlier, and right around the traps as construction finance has slowed. 


Supply looks set to tighten in 2020, then, and will most likely be felt acutely in Melbourne on these numbers. 

Hobart alone gets its own graph here, with annual approvals of 1,649 just below the record high for the Tassie capital. 


Piecing it all together, there were only 12,817 approvals in the month, which is the lowest number since all the way back in January 2013.



Population growth, after accounting for delays in registering births, is still running at about 400,000 per annum. 

Heavy drag

With credit growth slumping and building approvals apparently stuck in a race to the bottom, the Reserve Bank was left with little choice other than to cut the cash rate this afternoon by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent. 

Kudos to James Glynn of the Wall Street Journal who has had some of the best insights into policy in recent times, alongside Sophia Rodrigues who has resurfaced as Central Bank Intel.

Today's statement seemed dovish, with the Reserve Bank prepared to cut rates further as required, leading commentators to muse a follow-up cut as soon as next month.