Saturday, 7 September 2019

Housing finance to bounce (as expected)

Housing rebound

Bank economist forecasts are quite punchy results for next week's housing finance figures. 

Especially at Commbank, it seems, in gunning for an outsized 5½ per cent increase, based upon its internal data and insights:


Source: Bloomberg

But let's see. 

Note that these figures relate to July 2019, and as such are very much historic in nature.

As for the analysts trying to picking turning points based on historic changes in housing credit...well, that's a fool's errand and it'll almost never produce the signal on a timely basis. 

In fact, a number of market analysts and observers including Redom Syed of Confidence Finance and myself made this same point well before the election, predicting a H2 2019 turnaround right back in the first quarter of the calendar year.

No headlines in that, though! 😄