Hammer time
Unless you know something financial markets do not, expect low interest rates to be around for the next decade-and-a-half.
Of course, the resident doom merchants will refer back to credit growth figures relating from July 2018 to July 2019 as 'evidence' of a looming housing market crunch.
But just as was the case in 2013, low housing credit growth reflects the historic data and buying decisions made often more than a year ago, as well as reflecting the changed composition of the now depleted stock of interest-only loans.
The better forward-looking indicators tend to include mortgage brokers reporting an increase in applications; and even the more balanced and conservative observers have called the bottom here.
Now there's no doubt that parts of the new apartment sector are facing down an ongoing shitshow (and how), which may well hold down median price indexes.
But in the established dwelling market respected industry experts down in Melbourne have consistently been reporting auctions punching 10 or 15 per cent over reserve prices.
I'm down to Melbourne today to present at a conference, so I thought I'd take a look for myself.
Of course, the resident doom merchants will refer back to credit growth figures relating from July 2018 to July 2019 as 'evidence' of a looming housing market crunch.
But just as was the case in 2013, low housing credit growth reflects the historic data and buying decisions made often more than a year ago, as well as reflecting the changed composition of the now depleted stock of interest-only loans.
The better forward-looking indicators tend to include mortgage brokers reporting an increase in applications; and even the more balanced and conservative observers have called the bottom here.
Now there's no doubt that parts of the new apartment sector are facing down an ongoing shitshow (and how), which may well hold down median price indexes.
But in the established dwelling market respected industry experts down in Melbourne have consistently been reporting auctions punching 10 or 15 per cent over reserve prices.
I'm down to Melbourne today to present at a conference, so I thought I'd take a look for myself.
A quick squiz at an auction or two suggested no signs of frenzied bidding or 'FOMO'.
But market sentiment is light years improved from where things were at in May, when Labor looked to be a shoo-in to win the election.
This one was a little 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom house, on a small lot with no off-street parking.
The location is about 6km from the Melbourne CBD, and there was a price guide of $1.14 to $1.19 million,
From what I can see comparables from the pre-election period were selling for about $1.2 million.
And here's what happened...
But market sentiment is light years improved from where things were at in May, when Labor looked to be a shoo-in to win the election.
This one was a little 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom house, on a small lot with no off-street parking.
The location is about 6km from the Melbourne CBD, and there was a price guide of $1.14 to $1.19 million,
From what I can see comparables from the pre-election period were selling for about $1.2 million.
And here's what happened...
Sold for $1,312,000 (it was called on the market in the low $1.2s).
Looks like a recovery to me.
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It looks as though the iron ore price party is well and truly over with the spot price down another 6.9 per cent on August 2 as Brazil's Vale ramps up supply again.
The implied yield curve seems to be endlessly carving out new lows, with markets now effectively pricing in more than two further rate cuts.
