Jobs watch
It was an interesting week for Reserve Bank watchers, with the latest Statement intimating that labour market forecasts need to improve, or else interest rates may fall in line with market pricing to 1 per cent.
Monthly jobs survey figures are volatile, and given the reference to strong employment growth in the March quarter it seems likely that an assessment will be made of the figures for the second quarter.
Still there's a chance that things deteriorate sooner, and this week the latest labour force (and wage price index) figures will be scrutinised with great interest.
Last month the unemployment rate was 5.048 per cent, so an extra dozen unemployed in the survey might've rounded the reported result up to 5.1 per cent.
The market forecasts for April range from 4.9 per cent to 5.1 per cent, with a market median forecast of 5 per cent, and Westpac sitting at the high end of the range.
Interestingly unemployment rates are already low in New South Wales (4.3 per cent) and Victoria (4.6 per cent), but it is not so elsewhere.
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The wage price index is expected to lift by 0.6 per cent in the March quarter on stronger enterprise bargaining agreements, which would hold the annual pace of wages growth steady at 2.3 per cent.
