Wednesday, 22 May 2019

Arrears mixed as interest-only reset loan reset

IO loans pain

There was an increase in S&P's Prime SPIN mortgage index, with delinquencies up to 1.51 per cent from 1.37 per cent a year earlier.

90 plus day arrears are now 0.81 per cent, up from 0.60 per cent a year earlier. 


Arrears increased faster year-on-year for investment loans, rising from 1.19 per cent a year earlier to 1.46 per cent largely related to the interest-only reset. 

Owner-occupier arrears were also up year-on-year, though less steeply, from 1.56 per cent to 1.73 per cent. 

The bulk of the interest-only reset has about 12 to 18 months left to run. 


Arrears were flat in the month of March in New South Wales (1.24 per cent) and Victoria (1.39 per cent), and were lower over the year in Tasmania.

In Western Australia arrears are now above 3 per cent (3.03 per cent) and they're soaring in the Northern Territory (3.31 per cent) 


Unlike episodes seen overseas non-conforming loans are not a big part of this story, with arrears declining to only 3.65 per cent, down from 3.95 per cent and far below long-run averages. 


The wrap

Arrears on fringe city properties will almost certainly rise from here, with some mining regions are also still getting hit. 

There have also been anecdotes concerning those buying house and land packages having to seek finance at high rates of interest to make up the deposit shortfall at settlement. 

Arrears seem to be well contained in New South Wales and Victoria at the moment, though the devil's always in the detail.