Saturday, 2 March 2019

Sydney firms; volumes painful

Hammer time

Sydney once again recorded a stronger preliminary auction clearance rate, now up 65 per cent on Saturday.

The median price of property reported sold in Sydney also increased to $1,277,500.

Meanwhile RealEstate reported a 69 per cent clearance rate for New South Wales.

It's been interesting to observe in the past fortnight or so how 'A grade' properties are garnering plenty of interest - the Sydney economy has been quite buoyant, after all - but secondary and lower grade properties have been rather punished over the past 18 months in the tight lending environment. 

Melbourne arrived in its downturn later that Sydney, and its preliminary clearance rate was considerably softer at only 53 per cent.


Looking around at the other auction markets sales volumes are painfully thin, with next to nothing selling under the hammer outside the two main markets.

I've noticed lately in Brisbane over and over again offers being made 'subject to sale' rendering the entire auction process largely redundant. 

Essentially the Brisbane housing market is gummed up with mortgage approvals taking ages to process and sales volumes at the lowest level in living memory in plenty of markets. 

According to James Whelan of VFS Group and his famous 'theory of stuff' (i.e. that modern economies are built on people hooking up, buying a place together, and filling it with things) this can't be good news for the consumption economy, and GDP growth is likely to slow to well below forecasts. 

Contrary to the convictions of the central bank, in my opinion the slowdown in housing has largely been a story of credit supply, and it has now impacted markets right across the board. 

I thought about writing some thoughts on the dynamics of it all, but I think it's likely been well covered elsewhere, including by CoreLogic.