More work, please
Rather a lot gets said about elevated underemployment in Australia, but it rarely gets analysed in much more detail than that.
For example, I might ideally want more work, but if I only want an extra hour or two per week... frankly, who cares?
On the other hand, if I want an extra twenty hours of work, well, that's meaningful, especially if there are a lot of other people in the same boat.
While they receive little or no attention, the tables within the ABS detailed quarterly labour force surveys attempt to look into this in a little more detail.
The numbers are quite seasonal as there are more hours and workers around at certain times of year, and less so at others.
But year-on-year the numbers have still been gradually improving.
The underemployment rate in volume measures terms was 2.9 per cent for the February quarter, down from 3.1 per cent a year earlier.
And the underutilisation rate in volume measures terms was 7.2 per cent, down from 7.9 per cent a year earlier, and it's been a fair ongoing improvement over the past few years.
It should be said, though, that while New South Wales has improved significantly on these measures - with Victoria not too far behind - mostly the other states are lagging quite significantly.
Construction rolls over
Some decent progress has clearly been made since 2014, and there has even been something of a mini-boom in employment for public administrators, and safety and compliance officers.
Unfortunately, there are much bigger issues now at play, namely that construction employment is falling fast, dropping away sharply by 49,200 over the year to February.
I briefly discussed a handful of the risks associated with a rapid construction downturn at Livewire markets here last year.
Tax change risks
Tax change risks
Given that about ¾ of construction employees are directly employed in the residential sector, this is unquestionably the worst possible time for the Labor party to be meddling with housing tax policies.
After accounting for the strong multiplier effect of residential building, on these numbers there's little doubt to my mind that an Aussie recession could be on the cards if the ALP's proposals are pushed through effective 1 January 2020.
Labor's simple big idea is to incentivise Mum and Dad investors into buying off-the-plan apartments, which statistically speaking is a risky enough venture for investors at the best of times.
Unfortunately when they come to sell, however, they'll discover that their asset has dropped in value because the property is no longer new, and because the same incentives will not be made available to the next buyer.
Another of Labor's schemes is to fund election promises through hiking the rate of capital gains tax, though such policies appear more likely to generate capital losses for these unsuspecting investors.
I worry about a period of construction industry carnage, followed by an inevitable medley of compensating counter-measures.
But, I've been repeatedly assured that I'm wrong, and it's all good.
Pass the popcorn...
Labor's simple big idea is to incentivise Mum and Dad investors into buying off-the-plan apartments, which statistically speaking is a risky enough venture for investors at the best of times.
Unfortunately when they come to sell, however, they'll discover that their asset has dropped in value because the property is no longer new, and because the same incentives will not be made available to the next buyer.
Another of Labor's schemes is to fund election promises through hiking the rate of capital gains tax, though such policies appear more likely to generate capital losses for these unsuspecting investors.
I worry about a period of construction industry carnage, followed by an inevitable medley of compensating counter-measures.
But, I've been repeatedly assured that I'm wrong, and it's all good.
Pass the popcorn...
