Sunday, 17 February 2019

Hammer time

Sentiment picks up

The highest preliminary auction clearance rate for 9 months in Sydney, according to CoreLogic, being the provider the most comprehensive results.

I saw higher results elsewhere, but I'd trust CoreLogic more, tbh:


Source: CoreLogic

A change in interest rate expectations is one possible factor.


It can't be stressed enough that these numbers should be taken with caution, as while some parts of the Sydney market have picked up - such as in some parts of the eastern suburbs - others really have not.

I haven't looked at the sub-regional figures, but just from browsing the results it's quite clear what's selling and what's not.  

Another thing: there were only 521 auctions in Sydney this week, and there'll be more next week.

The AFR lead article ran with 'Huge sentiment shift', which itself probably adds to the feedback loop.

A missing piece of the housing market puzzle is banks that will actually write timely loans, but that might fall into place as 2019 rolls on.

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The most interesting release this week will be wage price indices.

I expect that annual wages growth will continue drifting higher towards 2½ per cent, driven by improving private sector wages growth in Victoria.


Chunky minimum wage increases will also help a little.

I'll post the key charts here during the week.