The long run

We're all dead

Wow, some tremendous excitement about the recent sharp increase to 43,727 Melbourne stock listings (thanks for all the Tweets!).

Since you're interested, below is the split between houses and units, per SQM Research.

Stock levels are broadly about back to where they were three years ago, and this is mainly due to a surge in completions and slower sales.

New listings are way down in Sydney and Melbourne, which is not all that surprising given unemployment rates in these cities are about 4 per cent and 4½ per cent respectively (meaning that are there are few forced sellers). 

Note that the population of Melbourne is increasing - up by a record high of +125,400 in FY2017 - so over time a higher number of listings is to be expected, given the larger overall stock of dwellings. 

One of the interesting things I noted from the Census is the remarkably low share of population in Melbourne living in an apartment, for a city that is now home to more than 5 million people. 

It's an idea I explored in a little more detail in my free workshop here. 

Also worthy of note about the downturn in Melbourne and Sydney prices over the past 18 months or so, is some longer term context. 

'In the long run...' etc.

In saying that, there would be some nervous off the plan buyers in some areas of Sydney, in particular - this from Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic, shows the Hills District copping major fallout:

Source: CoreLogic

The wrap

It seems to me that with population growth at a record high and investor credit growth now at a record low, Melbourne's rentals market could end up in an almighty mess, especially with the 'Brains Trust' in the Labor Party proposing measures to 'level the playing field' by restricting interest deductibility.

Melbourne will need many more landlords, not fewer.

Bit of an eclectic post today, but there you go, 'tis done now!