Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Tuesday, 4 April 2017

It's gettin' hot in here...

Hot in here... take off all your clothes?

A hot February was one plausible explanation for another poor retail trade result, with turnover declining by 0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms to $25.692 billion.

That's a big miss on expectations, and now the second decline in only the past three months!

In trend terms turnover increased by 0.1 per cent to a new high of $25.726 billion.

Year-on-year retail turnover growth has sagged to 2.9 per cent in trend terms, and just 2.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. 

Monthly retail turnover fell in no fewer than five jurisdictions in February, with only New South Wales, South Australia, and the Northern Territory in positive, erm, territory.

Surprisingly South Australia now leads the way with year-on-year retail turnover growth of 3.94 per cent. 

February was a hot month - certainly up here in Queensland it was - but how far that explains the 2.53 per cent drop in clothing and footwear retail turnover in February is open for debate. 

At least the month of February was a slightly better month for department stores after a dismal run. 

Looks like we've been choosing to cool off with turmeric and coconut milk lattes instead.

Overall, there's not much positive that can be said here, just another possible signal that policy has been too tight.