Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Wednesday, 22 March 2017

Return of the Kiwi

New Zealanders trickle back

Another trend which has been overblown on recent times has been the exodus of 'Australians' to New New Zealand. 

In fact, the numbers departing Australia permanently or for the long term are now down year-on-year. 

New Zealand has been experiencing record levels of net annual immigration - including 71,300 over the year to February 2017 - but the drivers of this growth are now former residents of China, South Africa, and the United Kingdom respectively. 

In truth tens of thousands of New Zealanders migrated to Australia through the mining boom, and relatively few have dribbled back.

The NZ government statistics have reported that the Aussie migrants in question are very often New Zealand born residents returning home. 

But even this trend has now reversed, with a small net flow of permanent and long term migrants back in the other direction across the Tasman towards Australia. 

Moreover, this analysis ignores the impact of temporary visas.

There are now more than 677,000 New Zealand subclass 444 visas on issue in Australia, with strong growth in this sector recorded in 2016. 

One metric which may yet favour New Zealand going forward is the Bledisloe unemployment cup, with Australia's respective unemployment rate inching higher than that in NZ in rising to 5.9 per cent in February. 

Overall, Australia's immigration levels look set to be relatively steady over the next year or two, with population growth tracking at around 1.4 per cent, largely centred upon Melbourne and then Sydney.