Real-time thoughts & analysis of the markets, economy & more...
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
Check us out here
TO COME AND SEE ME SPEAK LIVE IN SYDNEY - see www.quadrant2.net
Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Wednesday, 29 March 2017
Mining cliff nears its dénouement!
Declines set to slow
Some 4½ years after the heady 2012 peak it looks as though the drop in resources construction will at long last be drawing to an end.
Private sector engineering fell further in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2016, to be a thumping 29 per cent lower over the year.
Thankfully, there was a 9 per cent uplift in public sector construction, helping to offset the decline somewhat.
Construction activity in Western Australia continued to tumble from $12.6 billion in the June 2015 quarter to under $5 billion over the last quarter of 2016, but elsewhere activity has long since already flattened.
Western Australia doesn't have too much further to decline, which is one plus point.
But the real reason we should expect the end of the decline to be soon upon is that there is now more work getting underway, as highways and infrastructure are built, and as the reserves of existing resources projects are depleted, thereby requiring further investment.
2017 should therefore see the last of the declines in engineering construction.
Mathematically, this is hugely important for the economy, for once mining construction is no longer acting as a drag on growth, we should find that the remainder of the economy is growing at a reasonable pace.
Although there have been many challenges along the way, that Australia has avoided a technical recession over more than 25 years through the boom and bust is quite a testimony to the self-correcting forces in the economy.