Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 1 March 2017

Economy bounces back to grow by 2.4pc

GDP surges back

GDP jumped back strongly to rise by +1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter and +2.4 per cent over the calendar year. 


Net exports contributed +0.2 percentage points (ppts) to quarterly GDP growth, and household consumption a solid +0.5ppts. 

It looks as though dwelling construction won't be contributing much more to growth going forward, so government infrastructure investment may need to step up to the plate. 



Income surges

This was a much better result for nominal GDP which leapt by 3 per cent, with a scorching terms of trade index rising by 9.1 per cent thanks to a boom in coal and iron ore prices. 



As a result not only is real GDP at a record high, so too is real gross national income, real gross disposable income, and real net national disposable income. 


The weakest part of the release was very much to be seen at the household level, where wages have stagnated in real terms, while households are reducing their savings ratio in a bid to keep up with rising dwelling prices. 


At the state level there was a thumping quarterly result for Victoria, while Western Australia recorded growth in state final demand for the first time since June 2015, coming off the back of a horrible revised result for the preceding quarter (-4.3 per cent). 


The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted strength in machinery and non-dwelling construction in Western Australia, which may indicate a corner in the process of being turned in the face of higher commodity prices. 

The wrap

Overall, this was a solid headline result which saw Australia stretch its unbroken run without a recession to 102 quarters. 

The Dutch hold the record at 103 quarters of continuous economic growth.

When you drill down to the household level the figures don't look half as clever, it must be said. 

Water, Drop, Liquid, Splash, Wet, Clean