Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Thursday, 2 March 2017

Approvals clinging on

Approvals holding up

Capital city detached house approvals seem to be rolling over in many cases, while Perth continues its 38 per cent nosedive (which has been ongoing now for more than two years since December 2014). 

Apartment approvals in Sydney and Melbourne have held up at historically high levels, reflecting strong ongoing demand from buyers, but developers in Brisbane have finally seen the light with attached dwelling approvals falling to all but zip in January. 

More specifically in the 'high rise' apartment sector there were scarcely any approvals at all in the entire state of Queensland in January, following on from so much exuberance in recent times. 

Piecing it all together, although seasonally adjusted approvals were technically a notch higher in the month at 17,412 (+1.2 per cent), there is no mistaking the downtrend. 

At the sectoral level, while annual 'high-rise' apartment approvals have declined from ~78,000 to ~69,000, one feels that this decline has a long way to run. 

Certainly the Housing Industry Association (HIA) believes so, with multi-unit commencements forecast to decline by 25 per cent and 12 per cent over the next two financial years respectively. 

It's rather enough to make you wonder what's going to power economic growth once residential construction drops off...

Leonard Nimoy, William Shatner