Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 6 February 2017

Low housing turnover depressing household goods sales

Slower December for retail

A weak result for retail trade for December with retail turnover down by -0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. 

The year-on-year growth in retail turnover is now down to +3 per cent, well below the half-decade average of +4 per cent. 

It wasn't all bad news, though, with retail trade in volume terms increasing by 0.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, a substantial improvement on the negative result which detracted from GDP in the third quarter. 

Southern states revival

It was another unusual month at the state level, with both New South Wales and Victoria going backwards, and the ACT doing the same after a bonanza 2016, but the southern states recorded gains. 

At the state level, therefore, Tasmania and South Australia now actually have the best year-on-year growth after a severely protracted lean spell. Good to see. 

Looking good, Australia!

At the industry level we can see that slower housing market turnover is depressing sales of household goods which dropped by 2.3 per cent in the month, while building and garden supplies dropped by 6 per cent.

Business Insider suggested that the closure of the Masters chain could have been a factor - I can go with that! 

The best performing sector was by far clothing and footwear, with online retail apparently making further inroads into the returns from department stores. 

Finally, have we reached peak avocado after a smashing run? Perhaps!

The wrap

A poor result for the month of December, no question.

But there won't be a technical recession in the fourth quarter based on recent numbers, which should be handy for consumer confidence (while the results for nominal GDP and national income should actually be very good).