Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 14 February 2017

Investor lending resurgent in Sydney

Trend finance hits record

Commercial lending finance was weaker in the month of December, giving back a fair chunk of the 15 per cent jump from November, 

Nevertheless the trend for monthly lending finance hit it highest ever level at more than $73 billion. 

At the industry level, there are no signs of any rebound in financing for the mining sector, suggesting that the recent boom in coal and iron ore prices is unlikely to lead to any significant increase in resources investment. 

In fact, financing for the mining sector crashed by more than two-thirds over 2016, with the best performing sectors instead including construction and transport. 

Investor loans - a mixed picture

The national rebound in investor loans in 2016 masks a huge divergence in fortunes around the traps.

In Sydney, investors are well and truly back with $6.3 billion of investor loans in December 2016 being some 36 per cent higher than the $4.6 billion seen only a year previously. 

There was also a resurgence in investor lending in Victoria, but most other states and territories are only seeing activity levels that are lower than in the prior year. 

In the resources-focused Northern Territory, meanwhile, the 12-month moving average for the value of investor loans has collapsed by 51 per cent from the peak.

The wrap

Clearly a mixed picture for property investment loans, then, with the Sydney market looking set for a strong first half of 2017. 

The commercial finance picture is patchier, although the Reserve Bank's optimism appears to have been justified by a stonking NAB Business Survey.

NAB reported today that business conditions had blown off spectacularly from a December reading of +9.9 to a 9-year high of +16.2 (New South Wales the clear leader of the states with a reading of +23).

This was the strongest result since the financial crisis and miles above the long-run average reading of +5.

Business confidence also tore higher from +5.7 to +9.8 in January, while the employment index hit its highest level since 2011.

A seriously bullish survey.

Sydney, Opera, House, Australia