Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 28 February 2017

CAD narrows to $3.9 billion

CAD narrows remarkably

The tweets about Australia being in recession in the fourth quarter are doubtless quietly being deleted.

The current account deficit narrowed by a remarkable 62 per cent from $10.2 billion to just $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter, albeit mainly thanks to booming commodity prices rather than export volumes. 

Just a year earlier the deficit has been as wide as $23.1 billion.

The current account balance as a percentage of GDP is now in the best nick in 36 years. 

Net foreign debt has declined a little over the past 6 months, although the total outstanding remains over $1 trillion.

Recession avoided 

We'll have to wait until tomorrow for the national accounts to confirm GDP growth for the fourth quarter.

However, net exports will add a little to growth at +0.2ppts, neatly offsetting an equivalent drag from a draw on inventories. 

Meanwhile all that government debt hasn't completely gone to waste, with public demand increasing by +1.4 per cent, as such contributing +0.3ppts to growth in the quarter.

The government has been spending up on transport and other infrastructure projects.

The major banks see GDP growing by between +0.7 per cent and +1 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2016. 

In summary: no recession here. 

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