Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Tuesday, 28 February 2017

CAD narrows to $3.9 billion

CAD narrows remarkably

The tweets about Australia being in recession in the fourth quarter are doubtless quietly being deleted.

The current account deficit narrowed by a remarkable 62 per cent from $10.2 billion to just $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter, albeit mainly thanks to booming commodity prices rather than export volumes. 

Just a year earlier the deficit has been as wide as $23.1 billion.

The current account balance as a percentage of GDP is now in the best nick in 36 years. 

Net foreign debt has declined a little over the past 6 months, although the total outstanding remains over $1 trillion.

Recession avoided 

We'll have to wait until tomorrow for the national accounts to confirm GDP growth for the fourth quarter.

However, net exports will add a little to growth at +0.2ppts, neatly offsetting an equivalent drag from a draw on inventories. 

Meanwhile all that government debt hasn't completely gone to waste, with public demand increasing by +1.4 per cent, as such contributing +0.3ppts to growth in the quarter.

The government has been spending up on transport and other infrastructure projects.

The major banks see GDP growing by between +0.7 per cent and +1 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2016. 

In summary: no recession here. 

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