Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Monday, 23 January 2017

NSW investors blow the doors off

Sydney investors return

November's Lending Finance figures revealed a considerably improved month for commercial loans, with a 14.8 per cent increase in commercial finance. 

Personal finance also increased by 6.4 per cent, while lease finance was up 3.1 per cent.

So it was a much improved month for lending overall.

By far the most striking trend, however, was the return of property investors to Melbourne, and especially Sydney.

Investor loans were 23 per cent higher than in November 2015 in Victoria, with investor lending having been hindered by macroprudential regulatory measures in the preceding year.

In New South Wales the value of loans was fully 40 per cent higher than in the prior corresponding period, confirming suspicions that parts of the Sydney property market were off to the races again at the end of calendar year 2016.


At the other end of the spectrum, the value of investor loans in resources state of Western Australia was down by 13 per cent year-on-year.

Mortgage arrears are also likely to show further increases in the Northern Territory, with dwelling prices in decline and elevated vacancy rates.


Note that the figures for the value of loans written are not adjusted for population growth.

---

The all-important inflation figures will be released on Wednesday morning.

Market consensus for core inflation is 0.5 per cent for the quarter and just 1.6 per cent annualised, well under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.

Headline inflation could come in a bit higher, with market consensus of 0.7 per cent (from a range of 0.3 to 1 per cent).

This will be the most important domestic release of the week.

In June the annual rate of inflation was the lowest seen since 1999 at just 1.3 per cent.

---