Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Sunday, 22 January 2017

New housing finance topping out

Topping out

I recently wrote here how it looked as though new home finance had shaped into quite a neat double top formation.

In November, finance for new owner-occupier purchases increased a bit, but overall the trendline does suggest that a second peak is forming. 


The slight rebound ties in with the rebound in new home sales in the month, previously noted here.

Mainly investors buying new

It's often said that investors mainly invest in established housing, with charts produced to prove it.

Of course, with the total dwelling stock only increasing by less than 2 per cent over the year to September 2016 to 9.76 million, it stands to reason that most investors will buy established - there just aren't that many new properties in any given year. 

I have been more interested to know what percentage of the new housing stock was purchased by owner-occupiers, but nobody I have asked seems to know (or even care about) the answer.

The housing finance figures show that owner-occupiers financed the construction of only 68,200 homes and the purchase of just 31,490 dwellings. 

What the housing finance figures don't capture is that some owner-occupier buyers of new homes are cash buyers.

But nevertheless, it's clear that largely the buyers of new dwellings are investors, albeit many of them from overseas.