Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Investor credit accelerates again

Conditions improve

A much better month for business credit, which grew by 1.1 per cent in December.

In fact, business credit growth was strong for the fourth quarter in its entirety after a miserable May to September period, which may reflect the generally improving conditions in Q4. 


The most noticeable point from the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates release was another big jump in housing investor loans in December, taking annual investor credit growth up from 4.6 per cent in August to 6.2 per cent by the end of the calendar year. 

We know from data elsewhere that this is once again being driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne, in that order. 


This may be the end of the easing cycle, but then we've heard that before.


Aggregates

Thanks to instances of 'switching' of loan purpose from owner-occupier to investor, technically the outstanding value of investor credit is below where it was back in June 2015, but the more reliable figure for total outstanding housing credit shows an increase of 6.3 per cent for calendar year 2016. 


And the total credit aggregate grew from $2.5 trillion to $2.65 trillion in 2016.


Unusually, business accounted for a greater share of outstanding credit in December, while consumers are eschewing the traditional forms of personal credit, reflecting the increasing use of offset accounts are other methods of reducing interest charges. 


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