Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Investment loans up 21.4pc (APRA shrugged?)

Investors are back

If it seemed that the big capital city housing markets were strengthening into Christmas then so it was, with a massive 4.9 per cent jump in investment loans to a 17-month high of $13.3 billion, up 21.4 per cent from a year ago in seasonally adjusted terms. 

It never pays to get too excited about month to month changes, but even with the ABS drilling its trend line through the figures it's clear than investors were resurgent. 

Total housing finance increased by 2.2 per cent in the month to a strong $32.7 billion.

Ex-refinancing, the number of owner-occupier loans picked up in the month, but the real story is the huge flip back to investment loans. 

Average loan sizes are now clearly trending up again, having been knocked back by the first salvo of macroprudential measures to curb investor lending. 

In the owner-occupier markets, Melbourne and to some extent Queensland are seeing strong mortgage volumes for owner-occupiers. 

The number of first homebuyer loans jumped from 7,302 to 8,281 in November in original terms, but overall it's a tough environment for first homebuyers in Sydney (which in part accounts for why so many are turning to investment property as a first purchase).  

The wrap - $1 trillion of home loans

Investment loans increased for the sixth time in seven months, and this one was a big leap, taking the year-on-year increase to above 21 per cent, the highest such percentage increase since the peak of the Sydney boom in Q2 2015. 

In part thanks to net loan reclassifications and some cases of 'switching' of loan purpose, the stock of outstanding investor loans increased by only 3 per cent over the year to November.

Owner-occupier loans outstanding on the other hand surged by more than 9 per cent to pass $1 trillion.

Regardless of the blurred classification of outstanding credit, the key takeaway is that investors were pouring back into the market in late 2016, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne,

I'll look as those investment loans in more detail and by state on Monday.