Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 5 December 2016

Job ads up again in November (4.5 year high)

Jobs ads rise again

ANZ's Job Advertisements series rose by +1.7 per cent in November, after rising by +1.0 per cent in October. 

The series is now up by +6.1 per cent over the past year, which is a solid result.

There has been a long, slow recovery in the number of vacancies since 2013-14, now up to 164,438 from 155,011 a year ago in November 2015.

ANZs view is that things are getting better, but at a slower rate:

"The rise in ANZ job ads over the past four months is quite encouraging given the recent softness in the employment data. 

It is consistent with our view that although the pace of improvement in the labour market has slowed, conditions remain supportive of ongoing recovery."

Plenty for the Reserve Bank to consider tomorrow.

Although interest rates will be on hold, there will be plenty of discussion of weak wages growth and low inflation. 

The Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge reported another soft monthly result of just 0.2 per cent for an annual rate of inflation of only +1.1 per cent. 


Today's Business Indicators figures feed into GDP reported a seasonally adjusted result for inventories of +0.8 per cent, well ahead of market expectations, and not for the first time probably enough to keep GDP growth positive.

It's amazing how often this seems to happen.

Wages (+1.2 per cent for the third quarter, and +2.9 per cent for the year) were also better than expected, with hours worked rising in the quarter after a decline last time around. 

Company profits were up only modestly by +1.0 per cent for the quarter, with mining company profits rebounding (+5.8 per cent), in turn suggesting much softness elsewhere.  

With all of the other weak numbers feeding in to this quarter, GDP growth will still no doubt be a fizzer.

But perhaps not the headline-grabbing negative result that people were hoping for. 

Meanwhile, real income should be up towards the end of the calendar year on the back of stronger bulk commodity prices. 

As for the outlook going forward? 

A bit patchy, but back-to-back positive results for retail sales suggest reasonable momentum being carried into the new year.