Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Sunday, 11 December 2016

GDP decline just a speed bump

GDP blip

Although real national income rose to record highs, GDP growth seized up and came in at -0.5 per cent for the third quarter

Mining contracted, manufacturing contracted slightly, and the construction sector slipped up quite drastically, largely driven by a quarterly slowdown residential building. 

Retail trade was also rubbish, though early indications suggest that this should rebound in the last quarter of 2016. 

The main reason for the decline in home building? Lots of rain! So that sector should bounce back in Q4 as well, at least in theory. 

In fact states other than Western Australia experienced the wettest May to September on record, according to the people that measure these things. 

There was also a significant retracement in public capital investment which hopefully shouldn't be repeated next quarter, as well as weakness in some sundry services sectors and statistical discrepancies which all contributed to a weaker than expected result. 

Rain can often bring growth too in time, as flood damages need repairing, for example.

And, indeed, agriculture grew nicely in Q3 too. 

Most importantly of all, over the next year or so it will gradually become 'easier' for the economy to grow, because mining capital investment will finally halt its decline after half a decade of sharp falls.

It's worth remembering, by the way, that the supposed link between GDP and property prices is seriously tenuous at best.